Sinner vs Zverev :

Someone beat Djokovic in the semifinals, but they rarely ventured out of the shade long enough to be identified. In what was a dismaying exit to a great tournament, Djokovic had to pull out with a hamstring injury. That should end the debate as to the injury, but he posted an X-ray anyway which seemed to indicate a grade 1 muscle strain (yes, I keep a team of radiologists on payroll). Not necessarily something that would keep you from competing if you wanted to, but risking further injury in a situation where you were guaranteed to be in a long match might not make sense for Djokovic at this stage in his career. As we age, recovery times increase, and Zverev is a guy whose playstyle and serve make him a difficult equation to sprint past. Novak is definitely better at tennis, but even with Zverev hanging deep and playing passive, it still takes a lot of time and hitting to create points. Djokovic indicated he would have withdrawn had he lost the second against Alcaraz, so it would appear his plan with Zverev was to continue only if he won the first, or perhaps if the flow of the match was quick.

Djokovic is hunting big titles at this stage, but there aren’t any at this stage that he needs more than any other. He has them all, so health and wellness are his main focus. Of course the fans want to see him gut it out, but maybe he finishes the match and is out for 3 months instead of a few weeks. Maybe he steps wrong and injures something else because of a slight instability somewhere else. Many people incur compound injuries when they compete hurt, so I think Djokovic made the right decision. For now, it puts Zverev in a strange position. He’s in the finals against a guy he’s definitely not better than, but its also the ideal situation for him to win his first major.

Zverev leads the h2h against Sinner 4-2, and he’s had success against him before in long matches. Zverev won their US Open clash in 2023, and he lost in Cincinnati in 3 sets last season, so he has no reason to think he’s toast here. Sinner is hitting and playing at an incredible level, but there have been two matches already where he looked relatively vulnerable. Against Rune, he seemed visibly ill on the court and was shaking. He won somewhat comfortably considering this. Against Shelton, his leg appeared to be cramping and he was hobbling in the third set. He won the next 4 games after this appeared. It seems to not be affecting his results so far, but Zverev will have two avenues of belief here. He’s had success against Jannik in the past, and if he’s struggling he’ll be motivated to keep grinding because he knows fitness issues could arise.

The Sinner Shelton clash was one of the best exhibitions of clean hitting so far this event. Sinner isn’t hitting his serve as hard as he can, but he’s making such pure contact and the motion seems so repeatable. Shelton had an early lead against Sinner, but he was doing a lot of work with his arm and with his legs in this one. Sinner was on the baseline, and Shelton was stuck behind it. He made a lot of defensive slices on his backhand wing to keep points alive, but he never really won the positioning battle. When Ben is on the run, he’s able to use arm-strength and a stable base to generate forehands that go deep, but they don’t get him out of trouble, they just give Sinner another chance to make him run.

It was a match that saw Sinner create a lot of short angles off both wings, and while they didn’t score immediately, Shelton did get worn down mentally. You can play your best for an entire match, but that’s not generally Shelton’s approach. As the superior player, he steps it up when he needs to. He often drops sets and makes 3 set comebacks. He sometimes winds up in tiebreakers where he elevates and wins. Shelton is capable of a top tier level of tennis, and his ceiling is undefined, but his attention span for that is not the same as Sinner’s at this point. You need to almost train focus the same as you do physical output. If you play determined and efficient tennis in the easier matches, it’s a lot easier to maintain that level in the hard ones. Here, Shelton was able to put on a tremendous performance for the fans, but the ebbs and flows ultimately kept him from really pulling away.

There’s a mode players can get in at times where they don’t seem concerned about the ball coming back. I see Djokovic get into it at times also. They just focus on making the cleanest contact they can, and somehow the shot selection works. It’s lovely to see players peak, but watching them enjoy the game makes for the best fan experience. Sinner appears to be in this phase, and even though he was down early against Shelton in the first, it still didn’t feel like he would lose. I would say the same about his matchup against Zverev, but the cramps scare me. After the ADM match, he seemed fine, but that was really light work for him because of their contrasting styles. Zverev hits a much heavier ball, and he has one of the best serves on tour.

So far Sinner navigated a great serve-forehand combo in Shelton. He navigated a great defensive baseliner in Rune. He beat a quick defender in ADM. Zverev sort of combines these things (save the forehand). It’s the hardest match Sinner has had, and Zverev is almost completely fresh coming into this. The finals is at night and the temperature is a bit cooler, so it’s not guaranteed that Sinner will hit a wall, but Zverev is the exact player that he could hit one against. Sasha tends to play at the same steady level throughout a match, and this fortnight he actually has been able to generate more offense on his forehand and has been mixing in dropshots. This could be a long one.

In the interest of stirring up drama for absolutely no reason, I want to explain why I said that floating an injury issue can be a really effective tactic in big matches. IN NO WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM AM I SAYING ANYONE IS FAKING. However. Let’s say Zverev and his team are watching Sinner. They see him playing great, they’re preparing for the match. Now, they see him cramp at the end of the third. Yes, he closed out surprisingly easily from there due to some Shelton errors, but the stiff leg was very clear. If you’re on Zverev’s team, or if you’re Zverev, the best path to victory against a guy you’re not quite as good as starts to be “wear him down”. Maybe it already was, but it can directly alter the gameplan for a big match. At the highest levels, investing your energy or your best tennis at the wrong time can be costly. These guys have plans for how fast they want to start off, how they want to proceed during a set that’s getting away from them, and even if they want to drop a set. There have been many well-planned victories on tour where a player just let the other guy punch themselves out in the early sets, and started stepping up their own aggression as the match proceeded and the edge was off.

Wearing Sinner down might have already been the optimal plan for Zverev in this match, because when he’s fresh Sinner is the best player on tour. He’s the best returner, he has the best forehand, he has one of if not the best backhand, and his serve improves constantly. He has one of the best teams behind him, as evidenced by his composure, shot selection, and game management. Even if you remove them though, this kid has been playing tremendous tennis at the highest levels for the past 5 years on tour. The #1 seed playing the #2 seed is exactly what you want in a finals, but there many people who consider Zverev the 3rd or 4th best player in this draw. Going in his favor are his current level, and how light his draw has been since Djokovic beat Alcaraz and withdrew. This is maybe his best level in terms of forehand play and serving, and that’s good because I think the gameplan here for Sinner is to wear down the forehand. Zverev is a great mover and when he’s on the run he makes less mental errors. When he’s just hitting forehands in neutral rallies, he tends to not go that aggressive, and the balls landing a few few inside the baseline are something that Sinner can create on.

It’s a messy spot to predict because I like Sinner in 4 if he’s healthy, but he clearly isn’t. I think Sinner hits cleaner and is more reliable on both wings. He’s slightly more offensive, and Zverev’s deep court positioning has been costing him matches for as long as he’s been back there. Jannik has had 48 hours to hydrate and get himself to 100%, but it was indicated earlier in the week that he was struggling with an undisclosed illness, and it’s to recover completely within a tournament. There is a path to victory for Zverev, and it doesn’t require a meteoric performance like it would with some of Sinner’s earlier opponents. Zverev has had success against Sinner, and matches up better against him than most because of his rally tolerance. If Sinner can’t win the first two sets, I think Zverev drags this out, and gets a win against a slightly diminished Sinner. It’s funny to doubt Sinner given his marathon comeback against Medvedev last year, but he was in trouble against Shelton and Rune, and Zverev is what you get if you combine the two. Zverev in 5. Everything is just going his way this week. The set fumbles from Paul, the Djokovic withdrawal, and Sinner having stamina issues all just add to a situation that is his best chance to win a major since Thiem’s foot injury.